Although still in its infancy, sodium-ion technology represents a viable alternative to lithium-ion battery technologies. With better raw material costs, improved safety and better sustainability credentials, sodium-ion promises to relieve pressure on lithium-ion supply chains.
As commercialization efforts for sodium-ion batteries intensify, IDTechEx forecasts that some 10 GWh of sodium-ion batteries will be installed by 2025, as significant manufacturing capacity comes online and existing lithium-ion lines are converted back to sodium-ion production.
According to the UK market research firm, sodium-ion batteries are forecast to grow to 70 GWh by 2033, at an annual year-on-year rate of 27%. “It is possible that growth will be faster than forecast once the technology is reliable, qualified, bankable and available,” it adds.
Wood Mackenzie’s earlier forecast is more conservative. According to the US-based Scottish data firm, sodium-ion batteries are expected to partly replace lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries in electric passenger vehicles and energy storage, reaching 20 GWh by 2030 in the base case scenario.
Currently, production is mainly limited to pilot plants, with some smaller factories being commissioned. However, IDTechEx estimates that “the capacities that have been publicly announced by several feedstock manufacturers alone add up to well over 100 GWh in the next three years.”
IDTechEx says in its latest report that it has identified some 15 companies developing their own Na-ion battery technologies. It has also analyzed patents and found that China is once again taking the lead.
For example, battery industry heavyweight CATL launched its first-generation sodium-ion battery in 2021, with an energy density of 160 Wh/kg and promised an increase to 200 Wh/kg. Earlier this year, it confirmed that China’s Chery will be the first automaker to use its sodium-ion battery technology.
HiNa Battery, which emerged from the Institute of Physics of the Chinese Academy of Sciences in 2017, last year became the first company in the world to launch a gigawatt-hour sodium-ion battery production line. It also unveiled plans to expand capacity to 5 GWh.
Last week, FinDreams, a subsidiary of BYD, said it had found a partner in Huaihai Holding Group to start producing sodium-ion batteries in the Xuzhou Economic and Technological Development Zone in Jiangsu province. In a press release, the companies state that the joint venture will be the world’s largest supplier of sodium-ion batteries for mini- and micro-vehicles.
So far, sodium-ion batteries have been used mainly in two-wheel electric vehicles and for stationary energy storage, due to their lower energy density compared to lithium-ion batteries. Sodium-ion is three times heavier than its lithium counterpart and has a lower redox potential, resulting in at least 30% lower energy density.
Sodium-ion batteries are estimated to be 20% to 40% cheaper, but the challenge is to bring the technology to scale. Significant savings over lithium-ion batteries are therefore unlikely, at least initially.
According to a study by IDTechEx, the average cost of a Na-ion cell is $87/kWh, taking into account different chemistries. By the end of the decade, the production cost of Na-ion cells using mainly iron and manganese will likely bottom out at around $40/kWh, which would be about $50/kWh at the pack level, the company estimates.
(Taken from https://www.pv-magazine.es/2023/07/17/el-parque-mundial-de-baterias-de-iones-de-sodio-crecera-hasta-los-10-gwh-en-2025/)
